A mere 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have accumulated.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
